Job growth is critical to the health of the housing market, so on this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner analyzes the effect of COVID-19 on employment and what we can expect for the duration of the year.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
A MESSAGE FROM MATTHEW GARDNER
Needless to say, any discussion about the U.S. economy, state economy, or housing markets in the first quarter of this year is almost meaningless given events surrounding the COVID-19 virus.
Although you will see below data regarding housing activity in the region, many markets came close to halting transactions in March and many remain in some level of paralysis. As such, drawing conclusions from the data is almost a futile effort. I would say, though, it is my belief that the national and state housing markets were in good shape before the virus hit and will be in good shape again, once we come out on the other side. In a similar fashion, I anticipate the national and regional economies will start to thaw, and that many of the jobs lost will return with relative speed. Of course, all of these statements are wholly dependent on the country seeing a peak in new infections in the relatively near future. I stand by my contention that the housing market will survive the current economic crisis and it is likely we will resume a more normalized pattern of home sales in the second half of the year.
- In the first quarter of 2020, 9,189 homes sold. This is an increase of 9.5% compared to the first quarter of 2019.
- Ten counties contained in this report saw sales grow, one remained static, and one saw fewer transactions. Sales rose most in the small Park County area. There was a small drop in sales in El Paso County.
- The average number of homes for sale in the quarter was down 12.9% from the same period in 2019.
- Inventory levels have not improved and, given the fallout from COVID-19, it is hard to put a date on when we will see a resumption of normal activity in the housing market. Though sales are sure to return, we may well see a gradual increase in listings rather than a surge.
- Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 6.7% year-over-year to $477,495.
- Interest rates remain at very competitive levels and are certain to remain well below 4% for the balance of the year. This can allow prices to continue to rise but much will be dependent on the fallout of COVID-19.
- Appreciation was again strongest in Clear Creek County, where prices rose a remarkable 27.1%. This market is small though and subject to wild swings, so this jump is not surprising. We also saw strong growth in Park County, which rose 21.8%. Home prices rose by double digits in an additional three counties.
- Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets, which could act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose by only one day compared to the first quarter of 2019.
- It took an average of 46 days to sell a home in the region.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in six counties and rose in six counties compared to the first quarter of 2019.
- The Colorado housing market was performing well before the onset of the pandemic and is likely to resume reasonable performance once we resume normal operations. That said, it will be interesting to see if home sellers or buyers are the first to reengage.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Given the current economic environment, I have decided to freeze the needle in place until we see
a restart in the economy. Once we have resumed “normal” economic activity, there will be a period of adjustment with regard to housing. Therefore, it is appropriate to wait until later in the year to offer my opinions about any quantitative impact the pandemic will have on the housing market.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Over the past few weeks, as the effects of COVID-19 have spread to everywhere Windermere has offices, we have seen an outpouring of support from our agents and offices in their local communities, embodying what it means to be All In, For You.
The Bellevue, WA-based Windermere Real Estate East Inc. offices have been all in for their community in recent weeks by organizing “Feed the Front Lines.” This effort has raised upwards of $9,000, with many members volunteering their time to help pick-up and deliver much-needed meals to the medical professionals at a local hospital. So far, they have scheduled six shifts of lunch and dinner deliveries, totaling 415 meals. They have reached out further into the community, collecting donations for local small businesses that have been forced to close.
Windermere agent Chris Gaines—based in Boise, Idaho with the Windermere Powerhouse Group—was inspired to deliver food and other necessities to the elderly in his neighborhood. Chris and his family spent the day visiting local grocery stores and gathering supplies to make care packages. After divvying everything up, they safely delivered the care packages to neighbors, who were sincerely grateful. “It was clear by the excitement of some of them that we were the first to have visited since all of this began,” said Chris of his neighbors.
In other cities where Windermere operates, such as Palm Springs, agents are volunteering to buy and deliver groceries for the local elderly population who are currently unable to leave home due to the threat of COVID-19.
On Maui, the local Windermere office is routing Windermere Foundation donations to a local food bank. On top of that, they will provide that same food bank with a donation from each closed home sale over the next 60 days. Agents on Maui are also volunteering to prepare grab-and-go breakfast and lunch meals for kids at the Kihei Charter School.
In Nevada, the mother-son team of Reba St. Clair & Devone Donley are providing delivery services free of charge to their neighbors throughout the Lake Las Vegas area. They are picking up prescriptions and performing food deliveries, making themselves a dependable resource to their community.
The Seattle-area offices that make up Windermere Wall Street recently donated $2,000 to Refugee Artisan Initiative (RAI) to aid in the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE), such as surgical masks. RAI’s mission is to transform the lives of refugee and immigrant women by providing sustainable work in sewing and handcrafting goods.
As our agents and offices have proven time and time again, together we can make a difference. We will continue to share these uplifting stories of support for our communities through the COVID-19 pandemic.
All In, For Community. All In, For You.
What does it mean to be “All in”?
At Windermere, it means our agents love what they do, acting beyond themselves, and being there when it counts. During these uncertain times, we want you to know that our agents are more focused than ever on taking care of their clients and helping them move their dreams forward.
This year’s Earth Day will certainly look different than in years past. With no large gatherings, marches or events, most of us find ourselves celebrating from home. Fortunately, when it comes to reducing your footprint or assessing the eco-friendliness of your lifestyle, your living space is a great place to start. Here are some tips for celebrating Earth Day from home.
Outside the house:
The combination of spring weather and current shelter and stay-at-home orders have created a gardening renaissance. With April being gardening month and the amount of time we find ourselves spending at home these days, now is the perfect time to start (or get back to) your garden.
- Kick up your composting efforts or build out a composting area in your garden.
- Get started with a nature DIY project, like a garden shed or planter boxes.
- Make your garden your own escape. This is more important now than ever, for your health and the health of your household.
Around the house:
- Perform a plastic audit of your home.
- Take count of the plastic items used in your kitchen and bathroom and rethink their necessity.
- Get in the habit of turning lights off when you leave a room.
- Little by little this can add up and is an easy green practice for Earth Day and beyond.
- Turn off the faucet when you aren’t using it.
- Unplug your appliances after using them.
- They still use energy even when they aren’t turned on.
- Turning off phones, tablets, and computers at night will save energy.
- Use cold water to wash your laundry.
- This sidesteps any of the energy your machine uses to heat water—which is a large percentage of their energy output.
- Add plants.
- This has a myriad of benefits for both your health and your wallet.
- Plants are known to reduce stress and regulate temperature, which saves on the energy required to heat and cool your house.
By doing these little things around the house you can maximize your Earth Day impact and get an idea of how you can incorporate them into your lifestyle as time goes on.
Earth Day carries educational significance as well. Learning more about our planet and how we can do our part in its health moving forward is an important aspect of the holiday.
- Though you may not be able to attend a lecture in person, there are a bevy of virtual options to participate in Earth Day learning and planetary education. Discuss with your family what actions you can take to make a difference in your household.
- Add a nature documentary or series to your watchlist.
- Travel from home with virtual tours of national parks and natural wonders.
- Try some new cookbooks. For Earth Day-centric food ideas, look for cookbooks with plant-based recipes.
Homeowners everywhere have established an evolved relationship with their homes in recent weeks. Spending time thinking about the footprint of your household and how it allows you to make eco-friendly choices is a worthy investment for Earth Day and beyond.
Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic, many of us now find ourselves working from home. While it’s hard to complain about the commute, working from home can be an adjustment. For example, you may find yourself doing tasks around the house and suddenly you’ve missed several important emails. If you feel like you need some help being more productive while working from home, here are five tips to improve your workflow.
The best kind of light is natural light. Try setting up your workspace by a window. If that’s not possible, add a desk lamp or floor lamp to brighten your space. Not only will it help with visibility; it brightens your mood, which helps you to be more productive.
Remove distracting clutter. Take everything off your desk that you don’t need. Store it elsewhere or use shelves on your wall to display it.
If you find yourself cleaning throughout the day, set aside time specifically for these tasks. If you’re still waking up at the same time you did when working at the office—which studies show is a great strategy when working from home—using your would-be commute time to tidy up helps avoid those periodic distractions.
Bring the Outdoors In
Bringing plants into your home is beneficial for productivity and health alike. Greenery is a natural mood booster and gives life to a room. Plants naturally purify the air, helping you breathe easy as you make your way through the workday. Try arranging both hanging and potted plants to improve the mood around your workspace.
Change Your Chair
A chair that’s too tall, too short, or not comfortable is a fast track to back and shoulder problems that inhibit your workday and linger afterwards. Being in a stationary position for hours at a time requires the right kind of support to stay productive. Features to look for in a quality office chair include proper lumbar support, sturdy wheels, and an adjustable base that allows your shoulders to relax and your feet to rest flat on the floor.
It’s important to keep your home office professional and dedicated to your work. However, adding personal touches to the space will help you feel at ease. Position your work computer and phone front and center with any related work tools close by and handy. Adding pictures of loved ones, artwork, and inspirational quotes will help inspire you to generate ideas while working productively.
Most of us tend to think of air pollution as something that occurs outdoors where car exhaust and factory fumes proliferate, but there’s such a thing as indoor air pollution, too. Since the 1950s, the number of synthetic chemicals used in home products have increased drastically, while homes have become much tighter and better insulated. As a result, the EPA estimates that Americans, on average, spend approximately 90 percent of their time indoors, where the concentrations of some pollutants are often two to five times higher than typical outdoor concentrations.
Luckily, there are many ways to reduce indoor air pollution. We all know that buying organic and natural home materials and cleaning supplies can improve the air quality in our homes, but there are several other measures you can take as well.
How pollutants get into our homes
Potentially toxic ingredients are found in many materials throughout the home, and they leach out into the air as Volatile Organic Compounds, or VOCs. If you open a can of paint, you can probably smell those VOCs. Mold is a VOC that can build up in the dampest parts of your home like the laundry room or crawl spaces. Another example is the “new car smell” that seems to dissipate after a while, but VOCs can “off-gas” for a long time, even after a noticeable smell is gone.
Many materials used to build a home contain chemicals like formaldehyde, toluene, xylene, ethanol, and acetone, and even lead. VOCs can also be in the form of pet dander or dust. Fortunately, VOCs from building materials dissipate over time. For that reason, the highest levels of VOCs are usually found in new homes or remodels. If you are concerned about VOCs, there are several products you can buy that are either low- or no-VOC. You can also have your home professionally tested.
How to reduce VOCs in your home
Choose your building materials wisely
- – Use tile or solid wood for flooring—hardwood, bamboo, or cork
- – Choose solid wood or outdoor-quality plywood that uses a less toxic form of formaldehyde.
- – Choose low-VOC or VOC-free paints and finishes
Purify the air
- – Make sure your rooms have adequate ventilation, air out newly renovated areas for at least a week
- – Clean ductwork and furnace filters regularly
- – Install air cleaners if needed
- – Use only environmentally responsible cleaning chemicals
- – Plants are a natural solution to help clean the air
- – Air out freshly dry-cleaned clothes or choose a “green” cleaner
Pick the right carpet
- – Choose “Green Label” carpeting or a natural fiber such as wool or sisal
- – Use nails instead of glue to secure carpet
- – Install carpet LAST after completing painting projects or wall coverings
- – Air out newly carpeted areas before using
- – Use a HEPA vacuum or a central vac system that vents outdoors
- – Clean up water leaks fast
- – Keep humidity below 60 percent, using dehumidifiers if necessary
- – Refrain from carpeting rooms that stay damp
- – Insulate pipes, crawl spaces, and windows to eliminate condensation
- – Use one-half cup of bleach per gallon of water to kill mold in its early stages
If you would like to learn more about VOCs and indoor air quality, please visit http://www.epa.gov/iaq/.
Before you decide to sell, be sure to seriously consider the risks of putting your home on the market right now. Talk with your Windermere agent to discuss your options.
❱ While open houses generate interest and traffic, groups are hard to control, and we want to practice “social distancing” when we can. We recommend only allowing showings by appointment; this ensures that only serious buyers enter your home, reducing possible spreading of the virus.
❱ Consider vacating the property from list date to offer review date by staying with family or friends or at a short-term rental.
❱ Wipe down surfaces following every showing of your home.
❱ If you start to feel sick or have knowledge that you have been in contact with someone suspected to have COVID-19, take your home off the market immediately.
❱ Ask your agent to pre-screen buyers before they enter your home to ensure they aren’t ill and have not potentially been exposed to the virus.
❱ Place a placard in the entry of your home requesting that any person who has recently been ill or may have been in the company of someone who is suspected to have COVID-19 to not enter your home.
❱ Provide hand sanitizer throughout your home.
❱ It’s common for sellers to provide protective booties for buyers who tour the home; consider also providing disposable gloves.
❱ Leave interior doors open so that buyers who tour the home don’t have to touch the handles when entering rooms.
❱ Disinfect your home with proper cleaning supplies after every open house.
Find our Coronavirus Protections for Home Buyers here:
As the situation develops with the COVID-19 pandemic, Windermere Real Estate is dedicated to taking steps to reduce the spread of the virus while continuing to work with home buyers. To help with this process, here are some ways you as a home buyer can keep yourself and others safe during the buying process.
WHEN TOURING HOMES
❱ Only tour the property if you feel healthy.
❱ Ask your Windermere agent to show you the property instead of attending an open house.
❱ Drive separately from your agent to the property.
❱ Be considerate of the seller’s home and wash or sanitize your hands before entry, touching as little as necessary. While many sellers will likely provide it, bring your own hand sanitizer and use before and after you tour the home. You might also consider wearing disposable gloves for further safety.
❱ Ask your agent to confirm with the seller’s agent that they have not recently been sick or in contact with someone suspected of having COVID-19.
❱ Sellers often ask you to take off your shoes when you tour their home or wear protective booties that have been provided. Consider bringing your own booties and throwing them away when you’ve finished touring.
❱ Be mindful of how much you touch things in the home and minimize contact with doors and hand railings.
❱ Reduce the amount of time spent with other people in the same room. This “social distancing” practice can curb person-to-person spread.
DO NOT TOUR HOMES IF
❱ If you are currently self-quarantined because of illness or other reasons, you should not tour homes in person. Ask your Windermere agent to video chat with you while they tour the home so you can see it virtually.
❱ Do not view homes when you’re sick, feeling like you’re about to be sick, or getting over an illness.
❱ We do not recommend touring homes after returning from international travel or travel that exposed you to a large group of people in close quarters, like large events.
Find our Coronavirus Protections for Home Sellers here:
Every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. This week he discusses what it really means for the economy and housing to be in a COVID-19 induced recession (hint: it’s not all bad news).