Economics 101 April 29, 2022

Expert Opinion

This week, take a listen to Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist as he discusses the current state of the housing market.​​​​​​​

 

He takes a deep dive into interest rates, price appreciation and where the market is headed.

 

You can watch his video HERE

Real Estate Market Update February 4, 2022

2022 Forecast

Yesterday we held the annual Real Estate Market Forecast with our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

To get the recording of the full presentation, please reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Here are some of the big takeaways from Matthew:

  • The national economy is very strong and the rate of inflation is expected to slow during 2022
  • There are many millions more open jobs available versus the number of unemployed people looking for work
  • Mortgage interest rates are expected to reach 3.85% by the end of the year
  • Home price appreciation along the Front Range will again be in the double-digits this year due to high demand, low supply and low interest rates
  • Home price appreciation is not expected to sustain the current pace over the next few years, but no price declines are expected
Colorado Real Estate January 28, 2022

Steady Stream

Despite the extraordinarily low amount of standing inventory, it is important to understand there is still a steady stream of new inventory hitting the market.

Inventory is low. That is a reality.

New inventory is coming on the market at essentially the same pace as compared to the last few years. That is also a reality.

Because demand is so high, the inventory doesn’t stay on the market very long.  Residential listings go from ‘Active’ to ‘Pending’ very quickly (assuming they are priced correctly).

Over the course of 2021, there were 66,308 new residential listings that hit the market in Metro Denver.  That is only 5% less than 2020.

Larimer County had 8,342 which is 7% less than 2020.

Weld County had 8,499 which is 5% less than 2020.

While standing inventory is near 50% lower than last year, the stream of new inventory is fairly consistent.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

BlogColorado HousingColorado Real EstateColorado Real Estate Market UpdateFor Buyers & SellersMarket News April 28, 2021

Q1 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following the decline in employment last winter, Colorado has started to add jobs back into its economy. The latest data shows that the state has now recovered more than 219,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. This is certainly positive, but there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Denver and Fort Collins continue to have the greatest improvement in employment, but all markets show job levels well below pre-pandemic levels. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.6% in Fort Collins and Boulder to a high of 6.7% in Greeley. COVID-19 infection rates have started to increase again, and this has the potential to negatively impact the job market. I am hopeful that the state will not be forced to pull back reopening, but this is certainly not assured.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ 2021 started off on a bit of a sour note, with total sales down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2020. Sales were 29.2% lower than in the final quarter of 2020 as 8,645 homes sold.

❱ Sales were higher in four of the counties contained in this report, were essentially flat in one, and dropped in seven. It was pleasing to see significant sales growth in the large counties of Denver and Adams.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 4.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% higher than a year ago.

❱ The disappointing number of home sales overall can primarily be attributed to the woeful lack of inventory. Listings in the quarter were down more than 61% year over year and were 40.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 16.5% year over year, to an average of $556,100. Home prices were also 4.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Buyers appear to be out in force, and this demand—in concert with very low levels of inventory—continues to heat the market.

❱ Prices rose over last year across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of the very small Gilpin County. All other counties saw sizeable gains and the trend of double-digit price growth continued unabated.

❱ Affordability levels are becoming a greater concern as prices rise at a far faster pace than wages. Even though mortgage rates have started to rise, they haven’t yet reached the level needed to take some of the heat out of the market.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, down one day from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in all but two counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The relatively low level of home sales is not a surprise given how few choices there are for buyers. Sellers are certainly benefitting from strong demand, as demonstrated by the significant price growth. I maintain my belief that there will be an increase in inventory as we move through the year, but it is highly unlikely that we will see a balanced market in 2021.

Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to continue to exceed supply.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogHousing TrendsMarket NewsWindermere Real Estate September 30, 2020

Economic Update with Matthew Gardner

Event Invitation

Exclusive Invitation!!!

Tune in on Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:00am to meet with Matthew Gardner, Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist LIVE and get your chance to ask him questions. He’ll be discussing the housing market, employment and the effects of COVID-19 on the local and national economy.

As one of the only real estate companies in the US that has a Chief Economist on staff, we have exclusive insights into the housing market, economy and government happenings. This is a one of a kind event for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.

To sign up, please contact your Windermere Agent or message us to get the link. Seating is limited in digital meeting room so get your seat!

(If you can’t attend live, you can register to automatically get the recording.)

BlogEconomics 101Market NewsWindermere Real Estate July 6, 2020

Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 7/6/2020

On this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew”, Matthew Gardner discusses what is needed to motivate more Millennials to buy and the important role they play in the long-term health of the US housing market.

BlogEconomics 101Market NewsWindermere Real Estate June 29, 2020

Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 6/29/2020

On this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Matthew Gardner discusses housing affordability and how he believes that despite the impact of COVID-19, affordability issues will remain and may actually get worse as we move forward.

BlogMarket News June 22, 2020

Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 6/22/2020

In this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, dives into the high-frequency data sets that he uses to help determine where the US economy is at with emerging from the impacts of COVID-19. Hint: there’s progress, but we aren’t out of the woods yet.

BlogMarket NewsWindermere Real Estate June 1, 2020

Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 6/1/2020

This week on “Mondays with Matthew”: Now that things have settled down somewhat following the initial impact of COVID-19, Matthew dives into the topic of mortgage rates. Will they go below 3%? Matthew discusses this and the factors that have formed his updated 2020 and 2021 mortgage rate forecast. 

Economics 101Market NewsWindermere Real Estate January 22, 2020

Matthew Gardner – Will There Be A Recession in 2020?

Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, answers the most pressing question on everyone’s minds: Will there be a recession in 2020? Here’s what he expects to see.