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Fun Facts • July 15, 2022

Two Week Snapshot

by Windermere Colorado

Here is a quick snapshot of our markets two weeks into July versus the same time last year…

Larimer & Weld Counties:

  • Inventory up 61%
  • Transaction count down 44%
  • Prices up 17%

Metro Denver:

  • Inventory up 62%
  • Transaction count down 31%
  • Prices up 12%
Fun Facts • June 17, 2022

What the Numbers Say

by Windermere Colorado

During a time of varying opinions and heavy speculation about the Front Range real estate market, let’s see what the actual numbers are telling us:

Inventory is up significantly year over year:

  • Larimer County = +48%
  • Weld County = +52%
  • Metro Denver = +74%

However, supply is still low as measured by months of inventory:

  • Larimer County = 1.1 Months
  • Weld County = 1 Month
  • Metro Denver = 1 Month

Transaction count is down as the pace of sales is slowing:

  • Larimer County = -24%
  • Weld County = -15%
  • Metro Denver = -19%

Yet, average prices are still up versus last year:

  • Larimer County = +18%
  • Weld County = +10%
  • Metro Denver = +14%
Blog • Fun Facts • Real Estate Market Update • Real Estate Statistics • September 24, 2021

With a “T”

by Windermere Colorado

One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.

Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.

According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.

To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.

Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!

Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.

What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.

Blog • Real Estate Market Update • Real Estate Statistics • September 10, 2021

Staggering Stat

by Windermere Colorado

By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.

Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.

For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.

Here is a staggering stat for you…

At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.

This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.

Here are the numbers:

• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.

Blog • Colorado Real Estate • Economics 101 • Fun Facts • May 28, 2021

Calculated Risk

by Windermere Colorado

The economic research blog called “Calculated Risk” just completed a fascinating study on home prices.

Specifically, they looked at the correlation between home price growth and inventory.

They used price data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and inventory data from the National Association of Realtors.

No surprise, they found that the lower the inventory the higher the home price growth. Also no surprise, as inventory goes up, price growth slows down.

This all correlates with simple economic rules of supply and demand.

The interesting part of their research is this: at a certain level of inventory, prices have the potential to go down.

That level, according to their research, is six months of inventory.

That means, prices don’t have a chance of decreasing in a market until there is at least 6 months of inventory available for sale.

To put that in perspective, today there is two weeks of inventory on the market along the Front Range.

So, there would need to be 12 times the amount of homes for sale on the market for prices to even have a chance to go down.

Blog • Colorado Housing • Colorado Real Estate • Colorado Real Estate Market Update • Denver Real Estate Market • Housing Trends • Market News • Windermere Real Estate • February 3, 2021

Q4 2020 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Colorado
Economic Report
by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The job recovery that appeared to be firmly in place in the summer has started to wane. Though Colorado has recovered more than 209,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, employment levels remain almost 210,000 below the level seen last February. Even with employment growth stalling, the unemployment rate stands at a relatively respectable 6.4%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.9% in Greeley. Rising COVID-19 infection rates continue to impact the job recovery, and I do not see much in the way of palpable improvement until a vaccine becomes freely available, likely in the second half of this year.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of 2020, 12,207 homes sold. This represents an increase of 21.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, but 19% lower than in the third quarter. I am not concerned, though, because seasonal influences tend to impact sales in the winter.

❱ Sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.

❱ Inventory levels remain well below what I would like to see. The average number of homes on the market in the fourth quarter was down 55% from the same period in 2019.

❱ Pending sales were 34% lower compared to the third quarter. Again, seasonality and a lack of homes to buy impact this figure. Pending sales are still 13% higher than a year ago.

Colorado Counties Graph

COLORADO HOME PRICES

Price appreciation in various Colorado counties.

❱ Home prices rose significantly in the fourth quarter, with the average price increasing 13.7% year-over-year to $532,492. Prices were up 1.8% compared to the third quarter of this year.

❱ Interest rates are unlikely to drop much further and this will lead price growth to slow as we move through 2021.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with significant appreciation in Clear Creek, Gilpin, Park, and El Paso counties. Every county but Arapahoe saw double-digit price gains.

❱ Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern as prices continue to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, I anticipate we will see price growth moderate in 2021.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in various Colorado counties.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 15 days compared to the final quarter of 2019.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ It took an average of 26 days to sell a home in the region, down 3 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and buyers are clearly competitive as suggested by the short length of time it is taking to sell a home.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various Colorado counties

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Home sales and prices are significantly higher than a year ago, and demand for housing is very much in place. Naturally, this favors home sellers who are still in control of the market. I do expect to see some improvement in listing activity this year, which, in concert with modestly rising interest rates, will likely start to take some of the steam out of the market. However, any moderation in the market has yet to appear. Even given the possible headwinds mentioned above, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to exceed supply for the time being.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Colorado Real Estate Market Update • Economics 101 • July 31, 2018

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

by Windermere Colorado
content_18222_COLORADO_GardnerReportQ2_Masthead.png

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

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